* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/31/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 121 120 116 110 98 85 75 64 59 51 50 50 V (KT) LAND 120 121 120 116 110 98 85 75 64 59 51 50 50 V (KT) LGEM 120 119 115 108 101 90 80 71 63 57 54 52 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 3 0 2 2 5 4 6 6 7 7 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -1 0 3 5 5 3 0 -1 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 122 133 20 230 147 182 167 174 155 208 204 226 247 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.0 26.8 26.3 26.6 26.7 26.9 26.7 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 134 133 133 134 132 128 131 132 134 131 131 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.3 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 45 40 42 41 39 37 37 39 42 42 43 43 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 26 27 26 25 24 24 22 22 19 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 59 57 60 56 63 61 59 46 49 37 43 52 46 200 MB DIV 12 10 5 38 42 15 11 8 16 1 0 18 22 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 10 5 6 0 7 6 LAND (KM) 1885 1770 1655 1538 1421 1184 946 691 406 205 133 129 190 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.3 18.9 19.6 20.3 21.2 22.2 23.1 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 137.0 138.1 139.2 140.3 141.4 143.6 145.8 148.2 151.0 153.7 156.3 158.5 160.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 13 14 13 12 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 18 13 7 3 6 14 3 6 5 8 11 16 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -23. -33. -42. -50. -55. -59. -61. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -7. -11. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -4. -10. -22. -35. -45. -56. -61. -69. -70. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 17.7 137.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/31/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 1076.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.47 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 33.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 1.3% 2.6% 1.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 0.4% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/31/16 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 78 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##