* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/31/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 71 64 58 53 46 43 44 44 44 43 42 43 V (KT) LAND 80 71 64 58 53 46 43 44 44 44 43 42 43 V (KT) LGEM 80 72 66 61 56 50 47 47 48 48 48 48 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 20 19 20 22 18 21 20 15 19 14 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 6 6 8 8 0 3 0 7 2 1 5 0 SHEAR DIR 254 250 242 245 252 255 222 239 229 254 289 306 310 SST (C) 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.5 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.7 28.9 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 135 137 139 144 147 148 149 149 153 155 151 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.6 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 35 34 36 35 35 34 34 35 35 34 35 33 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 17 15 12 10 12 11 11 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 0 3 16 21 25 38 65 57 48 42 34 16 5 200 MB DIV 0 -10 22 12 3 -8 38 -12 -27 -22 -15 -7 -25 700-850 TADV 6 2 0 2 1 0 3 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 398 301 206 110 57 161 352 426 587 829 1115 1386 1654 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.2 19.0 18.9 18.7 18.5 18.3 18.5 18.7 19.0 19.2 19.6 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 151.0 152.0 152.9 154.0 155.1 157.3 159.3 161.6 164.2 167.1 170.1 172.9 175.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 11 10 10 11 13 14 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 13 18 23 36 38 27 63 35 18 20 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -11. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -16. -22. -27. -34. -37. -36. -36. -36. -37. -38. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 19.3 151.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/31/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.03 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.14 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 849.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.85 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 48.1 81.4 to 0.0 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/31/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##