* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/31/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 98 95 93 90 78 64 42 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 98 95 93 90 78 64 42 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 100 97 93 89 84 73 61 50 42 36 31 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 19 17 16 17 21 23 29 24 6 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 7 5 3 6 10 12 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 258 249 241 240 266 299 305 334 346 71 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.4 25.0 24.1 23.4 23.3 23.1 21.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 136 132 127 121 109 101 95 94 94 89 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 119 115 112 106 96 88 82 81 82 79 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -54.0 -54.6 -54.9 -54.2 -53.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.8 0.1 -0.4 -1.0 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 33 33 38 41 40 42 42 46 50 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 30 29 30 27 23 16 12 9 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -7 -14 -27 -44 -52 -58 -63 -84 -68 -5 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 49 37 34 17 4 -17 -36 -30 -44 9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 21 25 24 25 26 8 15 0 7 34 47 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1492 1432 1389 1398 1430 1638 1911 1689 1482 1224 868 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.6 34.5 35.4 36.2 36.9 37.9 38.9 39.4 39.6 40.5 42.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.2 47.6 46.0 43.9 41.9 37.1 32.2 28.8 26.4 23.5 19.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 17 18 19 20 16 11 11 14 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 2 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 12 CX,CY: 11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -17. -26. -37. -46. -53. -57. -59. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -7. -5. -2. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -9. -20. -27. -31. -37. -38. -37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -10. -22. -36. -58. -74. -86. -95. -96. -96. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 33.6 49.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/31/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.29 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 39.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 964.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/31/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/31/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 17( 35) 12( 43) 6( 46) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 98 95 93 90 78 64 42 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 96 94 91 79 65 43 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 94 91 79 65 43 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 87 75 61 39 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 69 55 33 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 98 89 83 80 72 58 36 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 98 95 86 80 76 62 40 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS