* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/31/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 116 110 104 98 86 75 67 61 53 50 48 47 V (KT) LAND 120 116 110 104 98 86 75 67 61 53 50 48 47 V (KT) LGEM 120 115 108 100 93 80 69 61 54 48 45 43 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 9 6 3 5 7 7 9 8 12 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 2 6 7 7 6 5 4 3 4 6 4 SHEAR DIR 114 139 162 173 171 171 183 174 175 164 194 185 190 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 26.5 26.4 26.7 26.9 26.9 26.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 132 132 133 134 130 129 132 134 134 131 131 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 40 41 39 37 36 37 38 41 42 44 44 41 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 25 24 25 23 21 20 19 16 17 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 58 62 54 59 61 55 51 49 49 31 30 13 8 200 MB DIV 20 13 17 11 11 23 36 27 8 2 2 21 3 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 1 1 12 7 9 6 7 5 10 LAND (KM) 1770 1658 1546 1424 1301 1076 806 536 283 126 121 156 375 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.6 19.4 20.0 20.5 21.3 22.5 23.6 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 138.1 139.2 140.2 141.4 142.5 144.6 147.1 149.7 152.3 154.9 157.2 159.8 162.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 10 11 13 13 13 12 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 9 4 0 2 7 11 0 2 8 9 24 8 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -15. -24. -34. -43. -50. -55. -59. -61. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -2. 0. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -10. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -16. -22. -34. -45. -53. -59. -67. -70. -72. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 17.7 138.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/31/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 1136.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.40 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 34.2 81.4 to 0.0 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/31/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##