* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/31/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 59 52 44 37 34 35 37 38 39 40 41 44 V (KT) LAND 70 59 52 44 37 34 35 37 38 39 40 41 44 V (KT) LGEM 70 61 54 49 45 42 42 43 46 49 52 53 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 22 16 19 20 16 17 14 14 14 15 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 10 10 2 2 2 -3 0 0 -5 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 262 265 253 260 271 261 237 279 280 308 293 304 307 SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 139 142 143 147 149 149 148 151 154 153 151 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 35 36 36 35 36 37 34 34 34 35 33 31 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 14 16 12 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 10 13 22 24 24 44 51 39 34 24 6 -9 -15 200 MB DIV -12 6 19 0 -8 16 0 0 -35 -12 0 -10 -19 700-850 TADV 3 0 5 -2 0 -2 -3 -8 -7 -4 -1 1 0 LAND (KM) 247 140 80 52 148 332 416 603 853 1067 1253 1445 1662 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 18.9 18.7 18.6 18.4 18.4 18.6 18.7 18.7 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 152.5 153.7 154.8 156.0 157.1 159.0 161.6 164.4 167.2 169.5 171.5 173.5 175.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 11 13 13 12 10 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 10 17 21 26 36 45 29 64 39 23 21 23 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 2. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. 0. -4. -8. -11. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -18. -26. -33. -36. -35. -33. -32. -31. -30. -29. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 19.0 152.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/31/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.28 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.08 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 714.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.92 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 48.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/31/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##