* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/31/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 92 89 86 82 72 57 37 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 92 89 86 82 72 57 37 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 95 90 86 82 77 67 56 46 37 30 26 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 20 18 16 17 19 20 34 33 19 5 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 4 5 3 8 11 0 3 5 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 256 246 241 238 293 302 332 353 35 152 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.4 26.9 26.3 25.2 24.5 23.5 23.2 23.0 22.1 20.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 126 120 110 104 97 94 93 89 84 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 116 111 107 98 92 85 82 81 79 75 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 33 33 37 40 41 42 42 45 44 40 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 30 30 28 28 27 22 15 10 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -19 -32 -55 -62 -73 -85 -86 -98 -122 -116 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 32 27 15 14 -13 -45 -35 -82 -31 -3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 27 17 24 25 18 22 2 12 22 17 10 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1427 1393 1381 1438 1519 1773 1791 1463 1164 867 606 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.5 35.4 36.3 37.0 37.7 38.6 39.4 39.9 40.6 42.0 44.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.8 45.9 44.0 41.6 39.2 34.4 30.0 26.2 22.8 19.6 16.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 19 20 20 18 16 14 13 15 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 2 3 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 15 CX,CY: 12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -9. -17. -26. -35. -43. -50. -54. -56. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. -9. -8. -4. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -8. -18. -26. -35. -36. -36. -36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -13. -23. -38. -58. -76. -92. -94. -95. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 34.5 47.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/31/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.24 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 70.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 892.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.07 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/31/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/31/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 11( 26) 8( 32) 4( 35) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 92 89 86 82 72 57 37 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 91 88 84 74 59 39 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 95 92 91 88 84 74 59 39 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 81 71 56 36 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 66 51 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 92 83 77 74 67 52 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 92 89 80 74 70 55 35 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS