* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082016 08/31/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 35 42 42 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 42 42 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 23 23 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 35 35 39 48 60 75 80 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -7 -1 0 -2 -4 -4 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 273 271 261 261 266 261 250 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.6 27.9 26.8 27.1 23.4 16.8 18.5 18.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 148 139 126 130 100 77 79 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 129 123 113 116 91 73 74 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.5 -54.2 -53.2 -52.3 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 -1.2 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 62 66 67 70 72 72 77 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 4 4 5 8 10 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -9 12 13 43 39 39 40 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 20 31 52 66 50 51 79 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 10 8 9 11 40 57 -41 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 285 412 444 462 406 465 397 790 1198 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.9 36.9 37.8 39.0 40.1 42.1 44.1 45.6 46.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.7 70.8 68.9 66.3 63.7 57.3 49.6 42.9 37.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 18 21 23 25 28 27 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 42 24 6 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 6. 8. 11. 12. 4. -14. -33. -50. -68. -83. -96. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 17. 17. 9. -2. -16. -30. -42. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 35.9 72.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082016 EIGHT 08/31/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.29 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.61 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 39.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 77.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082016 EIGHT 08/31/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082016 EIGHT 08/31/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 32 35 42 42 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 40 40 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 34 34 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT