* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/31/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 108 100 93 88 75 69 59 57 49 47 45 43 V (KT) LAND 115 108 100 93 88 75 69 59 57 49 47 45 43 V (KT) LGEM 115 108 100 93 86 75 67 59 53 48 44 41 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 8 6 5 9 9 9 12 13 16 21 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 5 3 4 3 2 4 0 1 2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 130 165 182 182 179 178 180 172 180 182 207 204 220 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 26.7 26.3 26.6 26.8 27.0 26.7 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 132 133 134 132 128 131 133 135 132 132 132 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 42 40 40 38 38 38 41 42 42 42 43 40 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 24 23 24 20 21 18 19 16 15 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 49 48 53 49 51 50 45 49 38 27 28 11 13 200 MB DIV 0 26 21 21 12 15 27 23 12 4 -5 22 2 700-850 TADV 4 2 -3 0 2 3 9 7 7 5 6 5 7 LAND (KM) 1641 1535 1430 1306 1183 935 649 386 189 111 117 273 518 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.2 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.3 21.1 22.0 23.1 24.1 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 139.3 140.3 141.3 142.5 143.6 145.9 148.6 151.2 153.8 156.3 158.7 161.3 163.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 11 12 13 13 13 12 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 2 7 11 2 7 4 9 10 13 6 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -13. -21. -31. -39. -46. -50. -54. -56. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -4. -9. -7. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -22. -27. -40. -46. -56. -58. -66. -68. -70. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.9 139.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/31/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 1053.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.41 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 25.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/31/16 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 58 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##