* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/31/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 58 50 44 42 39 37 38 38 39 41 41 44 V (KT) LAND 65 58 50 44 42 39 37 38 38 39 41 41 44 V (KT) LGEM 65 59 54 50 48 45 45 46 47 49 51 52 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 16 14 16 16 15 17 14 16 12 14 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 9 4 0 3 -2 -2 -1 -4 -4 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 265 253 251 264 267 227 255 258 282 275 290 293 299 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.7 29.0 28.8 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 141 143 145 148 149 148 148 152 155 153 149 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 37 35 36 36 38 39 37 38 39 40 38 36 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 13 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 22 20 24 26 39 49 46 47 26 22 9 -8 -11 200 MB DIV 10 5 0 5 -3 30 0 -21 -25 -4 0 -33 -17 700-850 TADV -4 2 0 0 -2 -1 -8 -4 -3 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 154 99 59 137 238 437 547 717 900 1101 1349 1555 1738 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.6 18.4 18.3 18.1 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.3 18.8 19.4 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 153.6 154.7 155.8 156.9 157.9 160.3 162.9 165.2 167.3 169.6 172.3 174.5 176.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 11 12 11 11 10 12 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 19 24 28 37 51 28 40 64 45 25 25 23 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -21. -23. -26. -28. -27. -27. -26. -24. -24. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.7 153.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/31/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.12 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.34 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.42 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.35 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.15 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.10 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 635.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.1 to -1.7 1.00 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 45.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.45 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 6.7% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.3% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/31/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##