* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 09/01/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 85 80 76 71 59 42 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 85 80 76 71 59 42 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 90 85 80 75 70 59 48 39 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 19 19 18 20 19 22 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 7 7 8 13 4 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 250 247 239 264 304 308 328 360 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 26.9 26.1 25.2 24.7 24.2 23.4 23.0 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 126 118 110 106 101 95 92 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 111 104 97 93 88 83 80 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.8 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 33 37 40 41 41 42 44 48 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 27 29 27 25 18 12 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -30 -54 -64 -56 -77 -86 -100 -92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 33 19 12 -2 -36 -54 -38 -43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 21 21 18 13 12 14 9 11 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1358 1355 1378 1470 1581 1853 1747 1477 1238 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.6 36.4 37.3 37.9 38.4 38.9 39.5 40.5 41.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.3 44.2 42.2 39.8 37.4 33.0 29.5 26.6 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 19 20 18 15 13 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 16 CX,CY: 12/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -10. -18. -26. -34. -41. -46. -49. -50. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -14. -23. -32. -33. -34. -34. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -19. -31. -48. -65. -79. -83. -84. -86. -87. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 35.6 46.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 09/01/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.33 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.54 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 67.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 811.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.15 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 09/01/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 09/01/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 7( 18) 4( 21) 0( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 85 80 76 71 59 42 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 84 80 75 63 46 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 82 77 65 48 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 75 63 46 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 59 42 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 85 76 70 67 59 42 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT