* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/01/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 96 90 86 83 73 68 59 54 50 50 48 47 V (KT) LAND 105 96 90 86 83 73 68 59 54 50 50 48 47 V (KT) LGEM 105 97 90 85 80 71 64 57 52 49 47 47 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 8 8 8 10 11 10 10 12 13 16 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 2 1 0 2 3 3 0 0 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 169 186 209 207 204 187 183 194 204 215 231 221 229 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 133 133 133 129 131 132 134 133 132 133 133 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 38 36 36 36 37 38 39 38 40 43 42 40 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 20 21 22 22 19 20 17 15 14 15 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 50 56 51 49 48 51 43 39 24 26 5 5 7 200 MB DIV 24 21 23 6 11 20 24 -4 5 2 18 -1 24 700-850 TADV 2 -1 0 2 1 9 7 9 3 8 9 8 7 LAND (KM) 1501 1379 1256 1132 1009 733 444 223 112 113 204 444 662 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.5 20.1 21.0 21.9 22.8 23.6 24.5 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 140.6 141.8 142.9 144.0 145.2 147.8 150.6 153.3 155.8 158.4 160.9 163.2 165.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 13 14 13 12 13 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 4 10 12 5 5 2 8 6 19 8 13 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -16. -24. -31. -37. -41. -44. -45. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -4. -9. -11. -12. -10. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -15. -19. -22. -32. -37. -46. -51. -55. -55. -57. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 18.1 140.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/01/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.12 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 1001.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.42 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 29.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/01/16 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 59 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##