* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 09/01/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 49 43 39 37 35 34 34 36 36 37 39 40 V (KT) LAND 55 49 43 39 37 35 34 34 36 36 37 39 40 V (KT) LGEM 55 50 45 43 41 40 40 41 43 45 45 46 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 12 14 12 17 15 15 14 12 12 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 8 4 0 0 0 -2 0 0 -2 -3 -8 -5 SHEAR DIR 252 238 256 269 265 248 267 256 302 286 290 282 285 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 143 146 147 149 150 148 152 153 153 153 152 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 34 35 37 38 38 39 38 37 38 36 38 40 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 12 11 10 9 9 8 9 9 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 18 22 24 32 37 44 42 37 28 12 4 8 7 200 MB DIV 6 4 0 -6 22 0 -10 -38 1 -17 -17 -16 7 700-850 TADV 5 1 -1 -4 0 -1 -4 -4 -1 1 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 130 100 160 257 376 530 693 915 1158 1381 1535 1728 1942 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.0 17.8 17.7 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.8 18.0 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 154.6 155.6 156.6 157.8 159.1 161.9 164.5 167.2 169.9 172.2 173.8 175.8 178.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 12 10 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 31 36 42 57 46 30 61 50 27 29 34 39 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -16. -18. -20. -21. -21. -19. -19. -18. -16. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.2 154.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 09/01/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.12 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.46 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.56 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.38 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.37 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.11 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 520.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.17 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.1 to -1.7 1.00 -0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 40.7 81.4 to 0.0 0.50 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 15.0% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 5.1% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 09/01/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##