* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 09/01/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 71 67 62 47 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 75 71 67 62 47 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 80 74 69 65 61 50 40 33 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 17 17 19 19 13 30 19 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 8 9 12 11 17 -2 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 245 239 264 298 312 336 344 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.3 25.4 24.9 24.7 24.1 23.4 22.7 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 120 111 107 105 99 95 91 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 105 98 94 92 86 82 80 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 40 41 41 41 41 47 48 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 28 28 27 22 14 9 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -51 -64 -57 -67 -85 -92 -98 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 20 5 2 -22 -73 -29 -28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 26 18 16 11 21 -1 28 36 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1349 1395 1464 1581 1710 1933 1727 1462 1186 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.4 37.1 37.7 38.1 38.4 38.9 39.6 41.0 43.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.5 42.3 40.1 37.8 35.5 31.9 29.3 26.6 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 19 18 16 12 12 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 17 CX,CY: 14/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -22. -28. -34. -37. -39. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -8. -18. -27. -37. -38. -39. -39. -39. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -18. -33. -51. -67. -80. -83. -85. -86. -87. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 36.4 44.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 09/01/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.15 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 79.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 719.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 09/01/16 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 09/01/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 4( 11) 0( 11) 0( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 75 71 67 62 47 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 75 71 66 51 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 72 67 52 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 65 50 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT