* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/01/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 86 80 76 72 65 61 55 52 50 49 50 53 V (KT) LAND 95 86 80 76 72 65 61 55 52 50 49 50 53 V (KT) LGEM 95 87 80 76 72 64 58 53 50 49 48 48 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 7 7 8 9 11 12 10 10 9 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 3 4 7 2 4 0 2 2 3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 164 154 140 170 189 165 160 170 178 190 191 231 226 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.7 26.8 27.0 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 136 134 132 128 132 133 135 132 131 131 130 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 38 38 37 37 37 39 39 42 44 43 43 42 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 22 23 22 20 20 18 17 16 15 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 53 54 47 50 50 47 46 37 33 15 6 9 -17 200 MB DIV 31 37 33 25 26 19 18 4 14 7 20 4 13 700-850 TADV -4 -3 0 1 0 8 8 6 2 4 8 14 5 LAND (KM) 1376 1259 1143 996 851 597 345 156 101 122 331 592 839 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.7 20.3 21.1 22.1 23.3 24.3 25.6 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 141.8 142.9 144.0 145.4 146.7 149.1 151.6 154.3 157.1 159.7 161.9 164.1 166.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 12 13 12 12 13 13 14 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 5 9 13 6 2 5 5 9 22 9 8 4 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -17. -23. -28. -31. -34. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -8. -8. -6. -3. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -8. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -15. -18. -23. -30. -34. -40. -43. -45. -46. -45. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.1 141.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/01/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.03 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 888.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.47 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 14.3 81.4 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/01/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##