* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 09/01/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 34 32 32 31 31 30 31 30 30 31 34 V (KT) LAND 45 39 34 32 32 31 31 30 31 30 30 31 34 V (KT) LGEM 45 38 34 31 30 29 29 30 31 32 33 34 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 12 13 13 16 12 15 11 14 16 18 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 2 -1 -3 -4 -3 -1 -5 -5 -8 -6 -7 SHEAR DIR 253 248 246 246 256 284 277 286 305 300 281 281 273 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 147 147 149 150 149 149 151 153 154 151 150 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 40 41 43 44 45 43 41 40 41 39 41 45 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 20 20 28 31 43 35 40 30 19 6 -3 -7 -15 200 MB DIV -3 -16 -8 31 42 14 -16 -9 -20 -12 -12 -2 -12 700-850 TADV 3 3 3 3 1 -2 0 0 1 3 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 212 268 353 455 569 720 923 1115 1287 1499 1763 1911 1985 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 16.9 16.7 16.7 16.6 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 155.8 157.0 158.1 159.3 160.6 163.5 166.4 168.7 170.6 172.9 175.7 177.3 178.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 13 14 12 11 10 12 11 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 45 51 50 37 30 48 61 50 46 34 47 42 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -8. -5. -4. -3. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. -15. -15. -14. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.0 155.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 09/01/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.03 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.59 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.56 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.64 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.14 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 371.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.38 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.95 -0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 31.4 81.4 to 0.0 0.61 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 20.7% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 7.3% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 09/01/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##