* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/01/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 84 81 77 74 67 63 57 58 52 54 56 57 V (KT) LAND 90 84 81 77 74 67 63 57 58 52 54 56 57 V (KT) LGEM 90 84 79 74 70 63 58 55 53 53 56 60 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 5 7 9 8 11 7 9 7 12 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 6 5 5 1 1 0 0 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 155 162 178 192 202 169 188 189 203 219 219 257 271 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 132 131 128 130 132 134 133 131 131 131 128 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 37 36 37 37 37 38 39 41 40 41 41 39 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 21 21 19 19 16 18 15 16 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 50 47 49 49 46 37 42 25 26 0 7 -13 -23 200 MB DIV 31 24 34 35 23 30 12 5 13 19 3 21 1 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 1 8 7 9 2 10 6 10 4 1 LAND (KM) 1237 1102 968 834 701 445 235 102 113 240 480 704 920 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.2 19.5 20.2 20.9 21.8 22.9 24.0 25.1 26.2 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 143.1 144.4 145.6 146.8 148.1 150.6 153.1 155.8 158.5 160.9 163.1 165.0 166.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 5 7 0 0 5 4 12 8 18 7 9 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -9. -14. -19. -24. -27. -29. -31. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -5. -10. -8. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -13. -16. -23. -27. -33. -32. -38. -36. -34. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.3 143.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/01/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.12 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.02 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 835.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.47 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 30.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/01/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##