* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 09/01/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 39 39 39 39 38 39 38 38 40 42 V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 39 39 39 39 38 39 38 38 40 42 V (KT) LGEM 45 42 40 38 37 36 36 36 36 37 38 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 10 12 15 15 14 14 12 10 11 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -1 -4 -2 -1 -2 -3 -6 -3 -8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 224 234 235 243 253 278 257 295 295 299 279 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 147 148 149 150 149 149 152 154 154 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 44 46 47 47 43 40 43 41 38 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 6 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 29 37 42 44 36 39 29 13 2 -5 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -13 14 25 30 27 -6 0 -17 -10 -5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 0 -2 0 0 0 3 6 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 248 309 383 491 609 775 969 1163 1341 1520 1695 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.7 16.6 16.6 16.5 16.3 16.2 16.3 16.7 17.2 17.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 156.4 157.4 158.4 159.7 161.0 164.1 166.7 169.1 171.3 173.4 175.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 14 12 11 11 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 52 48 34 30 68 59 40 43 35 40 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -7. -7. -5. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.8 156.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 09/01/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.59 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.56 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.47 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.40 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.12 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 341.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.42 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.96 -0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 24.8 81.4 to 0.0 0.70 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 18.8% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 14.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 7.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 09/01/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##