* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 09/01/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 36 36 37 37 36 34 34 34 35 37 V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 36 36 37 37 36 34 34 34 35 37 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 37 36 35 34 34 33 33 34 35 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 14 16 17 12 20 15 15 15 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -2 -1 -2 0 -5 -5 -5 -8 -8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 237 241 255 277 279 279 303 293 282 267 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 147 149 150 149 149 149 152 154 153 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 44 46 45 44 40 41 39 38 38 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 38 52 51 49 43 47 26 17 9 -5 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 3 24 35 21 10 3 -19 -11 -18 -8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 0 -1 -4 3 0 0 4 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 306 379 471 595 654 841 1012 1163 1311 1475 1668 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.5 16.3 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.8 18.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 157.2 158.4 159.5 160.9 162.2 165.1 167.5 169.5 171.3 173.2 175.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 12 11 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 51 48 36 30 36 84 51 30 33 32 37 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.6 157.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 09/01/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.65 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.53 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.44 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.34 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.18 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 304.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.47 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.94 -0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 16.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.80 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 18.6% 14.1% 8.8% 8.1% 12.8% 13.6% Logistic: 0.6% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 7.7% 5.3% 3.1% 2.8% 4.5% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 09/01/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##