* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/02/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 113 111 106 98 85 71 63 56 52 49 48 46 V (KT) LAND 110 113 111 106 98 85 71 63 56 52 49 48 46 V (KT) LGEM 110 111 106 98 91 78 69 63 59 56 54 54 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 8 8 8 9 12 14 15 21 17 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 4 3 5 5 3 2 4 0 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 162 183 196 201 186 181 202 205 213 227 242 259 264 SST (C) 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.2 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 131 130 129 131 133 134 133 131 130 129 127 119 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -54.1 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 35 35 36 36 38 40 43 41 40 39 38 36 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 20 21 19 18 16 15 15 16 15 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 50 54 51 46 40 40 29 27 2 -6 -21 -48 -31 200 MB DIV 32 29 25 24 15 19 19 28 30 0 12 2 41 700-850 TADV 4 2 10 10 5 10 3 9 8 12 7 8 10 LAND (KM) 981 852 724 586 453 220 98 114 269 518 748 1022 1341 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.8 21.8 23.0 24.2 25.5 26.9 28.8 31.2 LONG(DEG W) 145.5 146.7 147.9 149.2 150.5 153.2 155.9 158.6 161.1 163.2 164.9 166.7 168.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 13 13 10 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 6 6 4 13 8 16 5 6 7 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -19. -27. -35. -41. -46. -49. -51. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 1. -4. -12. -25. -39. -47. -54. -57. -61. -62. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 18.6 145.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/02/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 1014.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.39 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 40.1 81.4 to 0.0 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 1.1% 2.8% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 0.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/02/16 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##