* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 09/02/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 29 29 28 29 28 26 26 25 27 30 V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 29 29 28 29 28 26 26 25 27 30 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 29 28 27 26 25 25 26 26 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 13 17 17 13 14 13 14 14 15 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -3 -4 -5 -5 -9 -7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 248 259 273 268 257 291 289 288 278 279 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 148 149 150 149 149 151 153 153 151 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 44 45 42 41 41 42 42 41 42 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 5 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 47 44 44 40 38 34 23 6 0 -8 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 19 28 22 23 -6 2 -12 -1 -6 -4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 -2 -5 -1 0 0 3 4 1 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 383 490 608 670 739 915 1098 1256 1399 1567 1756 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.5 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.9 17.5 18.0 18.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 158.4 159.7 160.9 162.2 163.5 166.2 168.5 170.5 172.3 174.2 176.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 12 10 9 10 9 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 48 34 31 36 53 66 42 34 33 35 39 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -8. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.6 158.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 09/02/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.70 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 40.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.53 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.56 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.28 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.20 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 277.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.51 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.68 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 38.4 81.4 to 0.0 0.53 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 18.4% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 12.8% Logistic: 0.5% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 7.5% 4.9% 0.1% 0.1% 4.0% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 09/02/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##