* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/02/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 99 94 90 85 75 65 60 56 53 51 48 46 V (KT) LAND 100 99 94 90 85 75 65 60 56 53 51 48 46 V (KT) LGEM 100 98 93 87 81 71 65 60 56 54 51 50 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 10 10 12 17 20 21 22 16 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 4 7 8 4 5 4 4 2 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 163 188 205 192 191 203 202 220 211 249 252 270 233 SST (C) 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.0 25.4 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 129 131 132 133 134 131 129 128 124 119 109 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 38 37 37 38 40 41 40 38 35 37 39 43 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 19 20 19 17 15 16 16 16 15 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 53 51 41 39 42 31 30 11 -6 -28 -52 -63 -4 200 MB DIV 17 17 25 25 29 12 26 32 10 9 -5 19 46 700-850 TADV 2 11 8 9 9 7 5 9 9 13 4 13 18 LAND (KM) 852 713 576 433 303 152 118 222 485 752 995 1281 1591 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.3 19.6 20.1 20.5 21.6 22.7 24.1 25.6 27.3 29.2 31.6 34.3 LONG(DEG W) 146.7 148.0 149.3 150.7 152.1 154.8 157.6 160.3 162.6 164.5 165.8 167.1 168.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 12 12 12 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 1 6 5 4 15 8 27 6 6 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -14. -20. -27. -32. -36. -40. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -6. -10. -15. -25. -35. -40. -44. -47. -49. -52. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 18.9 146.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/02/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 882.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.44 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 37.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/02/16 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 46 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##