* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 09/02/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 25 24 25 26 27 25 25 26 26 28 31 V (KT) LAND 30 27 25 24 25 26 27 25 25 26 26 28 31 V (KT) LGEM 30 27 25 23 23 22 22 23 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 15 16 14 13 18 12 15 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 0 0 -5 -5 -5 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 258 272 272 264 267 270 277 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.8 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 149 149 149 149 150 153 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 45 43 42 43 44 44 41 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 49 41 36 39 35 34 11 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 11 13 18 10 10 15 -4 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -6 0 3 0 0 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 493 611 675 741 822 970 1157 1340 1509 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.3 16.2 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 159.6 160.9 162.2 163.5 164.7 166.9 169.3 171.5 173.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 31 36 52 82 56 33 37 34 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 25. 27. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.4 159.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 09/02/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.75 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 47.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.62 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.53 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.26 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.15 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 234.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.57 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.66 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 25.8 81.4 to 0.0 0.68 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 17.9% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 11.6% Logistic: 0.7% 1.9% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.5% 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.9% 7.4% 5.3% 0.1% 0.1% 3.6% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 09/02/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##