* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/02/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 86 80 72 69 61 57 56 57 55 54 54 54 V (KT) LAND 95 86 80 72 69 61 57 56 57 55 54 54 54 V (KT) LGEM 95 87 79 74 69 62 59 57 56 54 54 53 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 13 15 16 19 11 9 6 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 5 6 4 2 5 1 -4 0 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 203 215 209 197 199 210 210 204 232 240 263 287 245 SST (C) 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.1 25.5 24.9 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 130 131 131 132 131 129 129 126 119 112 103 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -54.0 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 36 35 35 36 38 38 38 37 38 38 41 49 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 19 20 17 18 16 16 18 19 17 16 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 49 38 36 38 30 20 18 0 -13 -43 -51 -27 -10 200 MB DIV 17 26 25 18 22 20 38 30 13 13 7 33 44 700-850 TADV 17 9 6 3 3 2 7 5 14 5 9 5 27 LAND (KM) 733 597 470 358 274 163 185 362 627 911 1210 1465 1689 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.4 22.4 23.7 25.2 26.8 28.8 31.3 33.6 35.7 LONG(DEG W) 147.8 149.1 150.4 151.7 153.0 155.8 158.5 161.0 163.2 165.0 166.3 167.1 167.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 2 3 4 12 11 4 11 4 4 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -18. -24. -29. -32. -35. -37. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -4. -3. -7. -7. -6. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -15. -23. -26. -34. -38. -39. -38. -40. -41. -41. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 19.4 147.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/02/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.12 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 878.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.57 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 23.4 81.4 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/02/16 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI=100 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##