* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 09/02/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 29 29 31 33 33 33 34 34 36 38 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 29 29 31 33 33 33 34 34 36 38 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 27 26 27 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 15 14 17 15 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 0 -5 -5 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 260 280 282 279 278 305 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 150 149 151 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 42 40 41 42 42 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 39 35 40 40 34 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 15 21 14 4 29 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -5 0 3 1 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 644 709 799 913 1039 1289 1515 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.2 16.1 16.0 15.9 16.0 15.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 161.3 162.8 164.2 165.8 167.3 170.3 172.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 15 14 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 41 70 75 54 54 46 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 25. 27. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.3 161.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 09/02/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.76 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 54.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.71 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.44 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.15 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.16 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 249.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.55 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.65 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 37.8 81.4 to 0.0 0.54 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 17.2% 13.0% 7.6% 0.0% 9.9% 12.4% Logistic: 0.7% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 8.0% 3.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 9.2% 5.7% 2.9% 0.1% 3.5% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 09/02/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##