* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/02/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 83 76 72 68 61 59 56 55 53 53 52 51 V (KT) LAND 90 83 76 72 68 61 59 56 55 53 53 52 51 V (KT) LGEM 90 84 78 73 69 63 59 57 55 53 52 50 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 10 11 14 16 18 22 20 14 7 8 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 5 2 0 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 220 223 211 204 212 209 215 220 233 231 244 242 228 SST (C) 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.2 25.8 25.1 24.1 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 131 131 132 132 130 129 127 123 115 105 86 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 36 35 36 37 38 37 36 34 36 37 47 52 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 17 18 17 16 17 17 17 17 15 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 37 38 36 27 23 18 10 -12 -39 -60 -38 -20 -5 200 MB DIV 21 19 16 18 12 24 40 5 -10 -5 18 42 55 700-850 TADV 9 5 1 3 3 5 5 9 5 5 4 10 22 LAND (KM) 586 463 354 263 199 175 256 492 790 1085 1386 1652 1901 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.3 20.8 21.3 21.8 23.1 24.5 26.0 27.9 30.1 32.7 35.5 38.3 LONG(DEG W) 149.2 150.5 151.7 153.0 154.4 157.2 159.8 162.1 164.3 166.0 167.2 167.2 166.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 14 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 13 12 7 21 6 6 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -20. -25. -28. -31. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -18. -22. -29. -31. -34. -35. -36. -37. -38. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 19.8 149.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/02/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 818.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.62 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 34.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/02/16 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##