* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 09/02/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 26 29 30 30 30 31 31 33 35 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 26 29 30 30 30 31 31 33 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 22 22 22 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 17 14 17 17 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -3 -6 -5 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 288 282 278 292 273 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.7 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 150 149 152 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 38 40 40 41 42 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 31 38 39 39 26 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 14 13 4 19 23 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 0 3 1 0 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 692 795 915 1022 1137 1363 1600 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.4 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 163.0 164.5 166.1 167.5 168.8 171.3 173.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 78 67 51 43 54 39 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 754 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 26. 29. 31. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 8. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.5 163.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 09/02/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.81 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 56.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.75 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.58 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.09 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.16 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 217.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.60 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.62 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 43.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.46 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.1% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 9.6% 6.0% 1.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.3% 10.0% 6.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 09/02/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##