* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/03/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 76 71 67 62 58 55 54 51 50 47 42 V (KT) LAND 85 80 76 71 67 62 58 55 54 51 50 47 42 V (KT) LGEM 85 81 77 72 68 61 56 53 50 48 47 46 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 16 17 18 23 26 24 16 12 10 16 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 2 4 5 1 3 1 2 0 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 214 222 218 212 209 217 220 238 240 260 248 193 186 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.3 24.7 23.8 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 131 131 132 129 128 125 122 117 110 101 86 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 36 35 35 36 37 37 34 34 37 44 48 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 16 15 16 15 15 16 14 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 40 24 18 13 15 3 -11 -34 -52 -44 -13 0 -6 200 MB DIV 21 17 10 27 26 25 16 -11 17 12 26 34 42 700-850 TADV 8 9 7 6 3 7 8 6 6 9 11 15 16 LAND (KM) 358 277 219 200 210 277 517 789 1027 1265 1489 1683 1868 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.5 22.1 22.7 23.3 24.7 26.4 28.2 29.9 31.9 34.0 36.1 38.2 LONG(DEG W) 151.7 153.0 154.4 155.7 156.9 159.4 161.8 163.8 165.3 166.3 166.8 166.5 165.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 13 13 14 13 12 10 11 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 3 1 17 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -17. -21. -24. -27. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -18. -23. -27. -30. -31. -34. -35. -38. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 20.9 151.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/03/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.06 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 777.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.60 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/03/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##