* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/03/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 78 72 68 64 59 61 59 59 60 59 56 47 V (KT) LAND 85 78 72 68 64 59 61 59 59 60 59 56 47 V (KT) LGEM 85 81 77 73 69 63 60 56 54 54 54 48 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 19 18 19 20 23 12 6 3 8 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 2 3 5 2 -4 -1 0 -1 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 225 222 221 210 214 208 232 235 261 280 219 184 211 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.4 24.8 23.6 22.1 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 132 132 130 128 125 123 118 112 100 83 68 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.8 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 36 36 37 37 37 35 36 37 42 48 51 48 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 17 16 15 17 16 14 14 13 12 8 850 MB ENV VOR 25 13 13 21 7 -8 -27 -56 -58 -36 -35 -32 -82 200 MB DIV 14 11 20 29 38 27 3 15 7 27 31 40 33 700-850 TADV 9 9 6 6 9 6 10 7 7 6 20 13 16 LAND (KM) 265 208 193 205 226 407 686 943 1193 1433 1692 1885 1724 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.1 22.7 23.4 24.1 25.7 27.6 29.4 31.4 33.8 36.6 38.7 40.3 LONG(DEG W) 153.2 154.5 155.9 157.2 158.5 160.8 162.9 164.6 165.8 166.0 165.3 164.2 162.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 11 13 13 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 2 2 21 7 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -17. -22. -25. -28. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 2. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -7. -6. -4. -3. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -17. -21. -26. -24. -26. -26. -25. -26. -29. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 21.5 153.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/03/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.06 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 761.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.77 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/03/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##