* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 09/03/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 31 32 33 32 32 32 34 36 40 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 31 32 33 32 32 32 34 36 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 31 35 40 46 52 58 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 16 18 18 16 17 18 18 15 14 13 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -6 -4 -4 -5 -8 -6 -5 -4 -5 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 276 274 260 248 254 275 268 278 281 283 274 282 277 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 152 151 151 151 150 150 150 151 151 153 154 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 37 40 42 43 45 44 47 47 51 52 54 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 33 31 26 20 15 -5 -6 -12 0 3 6 4 14 200 MB DIV 0 21 33 37 26 12 12 16 19 24 16 7 0 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 1 3 1 0 1 1 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 1198 1364 1507 1611 1687 1779 1800 1827 1881 1964 2067 4137 4019 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.7 15.7 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 169.2 171.0 172.5 173.6 174.4 175.5 175.9 176.3 177.0 178.0 179.2 180.5 182.0 STM SPEED (KT) 19 16 13 9 7 3 2 3 4 6 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 62 72 53 44 47 48 47 46 46 46 48 62 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 906 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 26. 29. 31. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 9. 11. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.9 169.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 09/03/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.83 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 55.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.73 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.61 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.10 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.24 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 215.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.60 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.54 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 50.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.39 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.4% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.6% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 30.2% 19.3% 6.3% 1.7% 0.1% 1.2% Consensus: 0.4% 18.1% 12.3% 2.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 09/03/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##