* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/03/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 68 63 59 56 56 57 57 57 57 55 47 34 V (KT) LAND 75 68 63 59 56 56 57 57 57 57 55 47 34 V (KT) LGEM 75 71 66 63 60 57 54 52 52 52 49 41 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 20 24 22 23 22 11 7 11 16 27 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 6 3 2 1 -2 -1 0 0 3 3 5 SHEAR DIR 222 216 211 216 224 228 231 230 277 251 227 214 230 SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.4 24.9 24.1 22.4 19.7 16.9 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 132 130 129 127 124 118 112 105 88 65 66 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -55.0 -54.9 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 37 37 37 37 36 34 36 36 46 48 54 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 16 17 16 17 17 15 14 14 12 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 17 12 18 4 0 -14 -46 -76 -42 -15 2 11 33 200 MB DIV 13 22 29 15 34 20 -5 6 22 31 38 56 24 700-850 TADV 6 10 12 10 9 12 8 6 9 16 33 16 6 LAND (KM) 189 184 182 220 317 603 919 1178 1403 1613 1849 1582 1166 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.7 23.3 24.2 25.0 27.0 29.2 31.3 33.4 35.7 38.3 41.5 45.3 LONG(DEG W) 154.7 156.2 157.6 158.9 160.2 162.4 164.5 165.7 166.2 165.7 164.5 161.7 157.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 15 14 14 13 11 11 13 16 21 24 HEAT CONTENT 3 5 24 6 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -20. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -16. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -5. -6. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -6. -5. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -16. -19. -19. -18. -18. -18. -18. -20. -28. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 22.0 154.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/03/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.15 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.45 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 663.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.73 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 16.1 81.4 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/03/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##