* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/04/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 57 51 49 46 47 50 52 51 48 44 37 29 V (KT) LAND 65 57 51 49 46 47 50 52 51 48 44 37 29 V (KT) LGEM 65 58 53 50 47 45 44 44 44 43 39 33 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 24 22 22 31 19 11 8 17 25 32 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 2 3 6 -3 1 1 0 -2 2 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 227 217 224 223 224 236 242 247 280 258 228 221 225 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.7 25.2 24.6 23.2 20.4 17.9 15.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 130 129 128 126 121 116 110 97 69 66 66 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -53.0 -52.9 -53.5 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.9 -55.3 -55.4 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.5 -0.5 0.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 37 37 36 36 36 35 37 42 49 54 57 58 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 15 16 15 15 16 15 13 12 11 9 12 850 MB ENV VOR 16 17 1 -1 -8 -32 -68 -74 -32 -15 0 13 55 200 MB DIV 5 4 15 42 54 -3 17 14 27 31 39 73 35 700-850 TADV 7 6 11 10 9 15 9 11 13 26 12 44 -44 LAND (KM) 169 189 219 313 442 729 995 1250 1481 1748 1676 1272 981 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.3 24.1 25.0 25.9 27.9 30.0 32.2 34.4 37.3 40.7 44.3 48.0 LONG(DEG W) 156.0 157.4 158.7 160.0 161.2 163.2 164.5 165.4 165.7 164.7 162.4 158.3 153.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 14 14 13 12 11 13 17 21 25 26 HEAT CONTENT 3 22 6 2 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -13. -18. -24. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -10. -9. -7. -5. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -16. -19. -18. -15. -13. -14. -17. -21. -28. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 22.5 156.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/04/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.03 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.24 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 582.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.08 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.71 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 22.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/04/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##