* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/04/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 48 46 46 46 49 48 51 52 49 40 29 23 V (KT) LAND 55 48 46 46 46 49 48 51 52 49 40 29 23 V (KT) LGEM 55 48 44 41 40 39 39 40 42 41 35 28 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 23 20 21 23 24 13 7 7 10 24 40 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 2 0 0 0 -2 -2 0 0 2 3 4 10 SHEAR DIR 217 228 234 241 245 236 212 278 262 242 216 225 248 SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.0 25.5 25.0 24.1 22.0 19.2 16.5 14.6 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 129 128 128 124 119 114 105 85 65 65 65 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -54.3 -55.0 -55.0 -55.2 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 38 37 38 38 36 36 38 45 46 51 54 58 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 18 18 18 18 16 16 15 13 10 6 13 850 MB ENV VOR 18 4 1 -2 -13 -46 -73 -43 -22 -3 9 31 75 200 MB DIV 8 18 28 54 25 -13 5 17 27 28 53 43 21 700-850 TADV 9 13 12 11 16 14 2 15 10 31 33 2 17 LAND (KM) 161 193 282 421 569 840 1120 1354 1590 1873 1466 1112 905 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.9 24.7 25.7 26.7 28.8 31.1 33.3 35.8 38.8 42.5 46.0 49.4 LONG(DEG W) 157.3 158.7 160.1 161.2 162.3 163.7 164.9 165.3 164.7 163.0 160.0 156.1 151.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 14 13 12 12 12 14 19 22 22 23 HEAT CONTENT 21 8 3 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -21. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -8. -7. -4. -3. -2. 0. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. -2. -4. -9. -13. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -9. -9. -9. -6. -7. -4. -3. -6. -15. -26. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 23.0 157.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/04/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.03 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.33 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 477.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.81 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 35.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/04/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##