* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/04/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 44 43 44 47 48 47 44 38 28 25 DIS V (KT) LAND 50 45 44 43 44 47 48 47 44 38 28 25 DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 45 42 39 38 37 37 37 37 35 32 28 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 22 23 23 27 23 14 10 20 21 37 40 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 1 0 -3 0 0 -3 1 -1 2 5 SHEAR DIR 224 232 241 246 239 236 235 243 257 241 241 226 237 SST (C) 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.1 26.0 25.6 25.2 24.6 22.6 19.5 16.1 14.9 14.5 POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 127 126 125 119 115 111 92 67 65 61 58 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.8 -55.4 -55.8 -54.8 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 -0.4 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 35 35 35 35 35 36 39 45 53 58 59 62 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 17 16 16 16 15 13 12 11 10 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 4 1 -6 -19 -32 -65 -66 -34 -3 -2 -6 70 102 200 MB DIV 16 13 29 18 4 5 8 29 31 47 60 48 28 700-850 TADV 13 11 10 15 15 12 12 9 33 -4 4 -44 -67 LAND (KM) 205 305 436 591 753 1014 1222 1472 1801 1500 1071 945 893 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 25.0 26.0 27.1 28.2 30.3 32.1 34.5 38.0 42.2 46.9 49.3 50.0 LONG(DEG W) 158.5 159.6 160.7 161.9 163.1 164.3 165.0 165.2 163.8 159.9 153.7 150.8 150.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 15 14 10 11 15 22 29 23 10 3 HEAT CONTENT 9 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -11. -18. -28. -37. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -6. -7. -6. -3. -2. -3. -6. -12. -22. -25. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 23.9 158.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/04/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.12 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 449.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.27 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.72 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 60.9 81.4 to 0.0 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/04/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##