* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/04/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 47 48 48 52 51 51 46 35 22 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 48 47 48 48 52 51 51 46 35 22 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 48 47 46 45 43 41 39 37 32 26 20 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 24 25 27 28 16 15 16 20 36 55 66 64 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -3 -1 1 0 -2 0 -2 -2 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 226 238 244 240 240 232 259 246 220 236 251 263 269 SST (C) 26.4 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.3 24.7 23.6 21.6 18.5 14.7 14.5 15.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 126 124 122 117 111 100 81 66 66 66 66 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.5 -54.7 -55.6 -55.2 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 35 33 33 33 35 37 47 51 54 51 55 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 16 16 16 13 12 11 9 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -12 -23 -33 -48 -77 -59 -18 0 -15 8 73 72 200 MB DIV 13 21 17 6 3 5 27 32 37 58 21 0 1 700-850 TADV 13 13 14 14 10 10 10 15 13 17 -19 -36 -36 LAND (KM) 333 469 618 760 903 1173 1424 1663 1825 1400 958 926 612 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 26.3 27.4 28.4 29.4 31.6 34.1 36.6 39.4 43.1 47.6 50.6 52.4 LONG(DEG W) 159.6 160.7 161.8 162.8 163.8 165.0 165.0 164.3 163.0 160.0 155.2 148.7 141.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 13 13 12 13 14 19 25 27 26 26 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. -1. -5. -12. -22. -37. -52. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 16. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -2. 2. 1. 1. -4. -15. -28. -47. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 25.2 159.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/04/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.34 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.44 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 458.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.25 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.61 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 56.9 81.4 to 0.0 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/04/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##