* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/05/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 44 45 49 51 50 47 38 24 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 44 45 49 51 50 47 38 24 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 43 42 40 40 39 39 40 40 35 28 21 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 25 27 25 20 13 8 10 14 26 49 58 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -2 0 -2 -2 0 3 3 5 3 SHEAR DIR 229 239 237 238 237 223 243 235 222 224 247 258 261 SST (C) 26.2 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.3 24.8 24.1 22.4 19.2 15.8 15.7 16.1 POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 125 123 121 116 111 104 89 66 68 68 69 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.8 -55.0 -55.5 -55.6 -54.8 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 34 34 33 35 36 41 47 49 46 44 51 43 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 17 16 16 15 13 13 11 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -20 -30 -48 -64 -64 -31 -4 -6 -12 11 42 67 200 MB DIV 24 21 -1 2 1 20 36 29 22 41 15 -8 8 700-850 TADV 14 17 13 4 6 8 8 14 9 41 -7 -79 -88 LAND (KM) 452 610 773 908 1043 1259 1437 1613 1857 1525 1056 1113 460 LAT (DEG N) 26.1 27.2 28.3 29.3 30.3 32.1 33.7 35.6 38.3 42.0 46.6 49.4 51.0 LONG(DEG W) 160.9 162.1 163.3 164.1 164.9 165.8 166.3 166.0 164.8 161.4 155.6 146.9 136.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 12 11 9 9 12 18 27 31 34 35 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -14. -27. -40. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -12. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 0. 4. 6. 5. 2. -7. -21. -37. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 26.1 160.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/05/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 413.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.32 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.66 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 87.3 81.4 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/05/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##