* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/05/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 39 41 44 45 47 48 40 32 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 38 39 41 44 45 47 48 40 32 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 35 35 34 35 36 34 29 23 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 29 28 21 14 11 10 10 17 28 42 55 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -2 -1 -1 -4 -1 4 0 5 5 3 SHEAR DIR 235 238 243 244 237 284 255 243 221 241 258 263 276 SST (C) 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.4 25.0 24.3 22.7 19.9 17.5 16.2 15.5 14.2 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 123 121 117 113 107 92 65 67 68 69 69 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.8 -54.9 -55.2 -56.1 -55.9 -54.6 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.3 -0.7 0.4 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 32 33 34 33 34 45 48 48 43 44 41 39 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 15 15 13 12 13 11 9 6 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -33 -53 -71 -83 -59 -13 -7 -10 -10 -9 54 101 200 MB DIV 29 -10 -6 -1 -7 23 40 27 45 37 -10 -13 9 700-850 TADV 14 9 5 8 7 6 6 15 10 2 -33 -65 37 LAND (KM) 616 766 918 1038 1158 1360 1562 1804 1605 1229 1087 660 -81 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 28.4 29.4 30.4 31.3 33.1 35.2 37.9 41.3 44.8 48.2 51.0 53.3 LONG(DEG W) 162.0 163.0 164.1 164.7 165.3 165.9 165.7 164.4 161.8 157.0 149.8 140.0 128.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 12 11 10 10 12 17 22 27 32 36 37 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 15 CX,CY: -9/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 3. 0. -7. -15. -27. -40. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 16. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -11. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. 1. 4. 5. 7. 8. 0. -8. -25. -43. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 27.3 162.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/05/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.08 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 392.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.35 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.65 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 84.9 81.4 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/05/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##