* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/05/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 53 57 59 59 58 51 45 46 40 32 V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 53 57 59 59 58 51 45 46 40 32 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 52 52 53 55 52 43 37 35 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 25 18 13 10 4 7 12 26 43 47 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -2 -4 -3 -2 1 4 0 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 243 246 241 245 270 238 200 219 250 248 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.5 25.2 24.6 23.4 21.4 18.8 17.0 16.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 124 122 118 115 109 98 79 66 68 69 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -55.2 -55.7 -55.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.6 0.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 32 33 32 33 39 45 46 46 43 38 35 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 14 14 15 13 12 13 12 15 28 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -53 -75 -86 -64 -38 -13 -1 2 -2 67 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -15 -10 0 14 34 32 52 70 12 17 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 5 4 3 6 4 18 7 49 0 -61 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 773 913 1053 1168 1283 1465 1683 1796 1389 1127 923 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.3 29.4 30.4 31.4 32.3 34.2 36.6 39.7 43.2 46.5 49.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 163.3 164.1 164.9 165.4 165.9 165.8 165.0 163.4 160.1 153.2 142.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 10 10 11 15 19 25 34 36 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 3. -3. -15. -30. -33. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 14. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -3. -4. -3. -5. 0. 16. 15. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 7. 9. 10. 8. 1. -5. -4. -10. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 28.3 163.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/05/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.30 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.05 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 496.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.55 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 90.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/05/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##