* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/06/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 49 49 52 50 45 42 33 27 21 DIS V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 49 49 52 50 45 42 33 27 21 DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 50 50 50 50 50 44 36 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 11 9 8 11 12 25 42 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 -6 1 2 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 261 280 263 262 223 213 222 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.1 24.7 24.3 23.9 22.0 19.1 16.2 14.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 114 110 106 103 85 66 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -54.6 -54.3 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.3 -0.4 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 33 39 43 44 45 47 44 53 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 13 12 11 12 12 11 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -86 -67 -53 -28 -15 -1 9 39 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 7 25 37 37 38 80 40 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 8 9 6 6 18 8 -27 -69 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1206 1314 1423 1522 1623 1890 1480 1054 926 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.7 32.7 33.7 34.8 35.8 38.7 42.4 46.7 51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 165.5 165.8 166.0 165.9 165.7 164.4 161.2 155.2 147.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 13 19 26 32 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 13 CX,CY: -5/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 781 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -9. -8. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 7. 0. -16. -28. -37. -41. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -4. -5. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -1. 2. 0. -5. -8. -17. -23. -29. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 31.7 165.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/06/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.19 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.45 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.48 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.21 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 457.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.26 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.79 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 72.9 81.4 to 0.0 0.10 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 9.8% 7.3% 4.4% 3.3% 3.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.3% 2.5% 1.5% 1.1% 1.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/06/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##