* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/06/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 50 50 51 52 52 48 49 39 31 24 DIS V (KT) LAND 50 49 50 50 51 52 52 48 49 39 31 24 DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 50 50 50 49 46 39 34 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 7 11 10 19 33 49 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -4 -2 2 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 285 272 261 250 207 216 231 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 24.8 24.5 24.0 23.3 20.8 17.9 14.9 15.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 110 108 103 98 74 68 69 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 -54.8 -54.7 -53.9 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 0.2 -0.1 1.4 1.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 44 44 44 45 48 48 56 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 11 13 14 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -68 -53 -33 -18 -10 0 23 52 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 25 34 34 21 62 76 32 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 8 5 7 19 1 27 -39 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1321 1411 1501 1608 1719 1718 1235 994 493 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.7 33.6 34.4 35.6 36.8 40.4 44.6 48.8 53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 165.9 166.0 166.2 165.9 165.5 163.4 159.1 150.7 139.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 12 16 23 31 38 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 12 CX,CY: -3/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 772 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -9. -11. -12. -10. -9. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. -1. -19. -33. -44. -49. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 20. 22. 23. 22. 22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -1. 0. 12. 11. 11. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. -2. -1. -11. -19. -26. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 32.7 165.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/06/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.16 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 442.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.47 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 83.3 81.4 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/06/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##