* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 09/07/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 40 40 46 50 47 38 26 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 40 40 46 50 47 38 26 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 44 41 38 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 18 26 37 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 213 211 217 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.3 20.8 18.8 17.2 13.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 88 75 68 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.0 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 44 43 49 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 12 28 40 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 67 82 82 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 24 0 2 15 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1852 1709 1446 1126 864 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.2 40.5 42.7 45.7 48.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 165.0 163.0 161.1 158.0 154.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 27 32 37 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 13 CX,CY: 3/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 821 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -7. -11. -15. -15. -14. -13. -10. -9. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 8. -6. -24. -41. -54. -59. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 26. 25. 25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -5. 1. 5. 2. -7. -19. -30. -40. -48. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 38.2 165.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 09/07/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 321.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.45 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.52 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 54.3 81.4 to 0.0 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 09/07/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##