* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL112016 09/14/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 40 41 41 40 39 37 35 31 29 26 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 40 41 41 40 39 37 35 31 29 26 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 37 37 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 22 24 25 22 32 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -4 -7 -3 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 257 264 265 263 270 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 134 133 133 132 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 108 108 106 106 104 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 4 3 6 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 58 60 61 56 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 10 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -50 -60 -47 -40 -60 -51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 41 12 7 18 2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 1 2 1 2 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 28 28 28 26 23 19 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.9 32.1 32.3 32.4 32.4 32.5 32.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.7 80.5 80.3 80.2 80.2 80.1 80.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 1 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 15 8 8 9 10 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -4. -8. -13. -17. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -4. -6. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.9 80.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112016 JULIA 09/14/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.25 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.37 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.79 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.23 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.40 0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 96.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.84 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 12.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.6% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112016 JULIA 09/14/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112016 JULIA 09/14/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 40 41 41 40 39 37 35 31 29 26 18HR AGO 35 34 35 38 39 39 38 37 35 33 29 27 24 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 35 35 34 33 31 29 25 23 20 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 26 25 24 22 20 16 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT