* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL112016 09/15/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 39 40 41 43 41 36 32 27 24 22 20 V (KT) LAND 35 36 39 40 41 43 41 36 32 27 24 22 20 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 37 37 36 35 34 33 33 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 25 26 22 25 29 29 29 25 23 23 22 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -7 -1 0 -4 0 -4 -2 -1 -3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 253 264 267 262 255 282 280 304 311 311 309 268 263 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 137 139 138 138 139 139 137 134 135 134 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 112 111 112 111 110 111 112 110 107 107 107 107 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 3 6 6 5 7 5 8 6 9 7 9 700-500 MB RH 57 54 56 56 56 54 52 51 53 53 51 49 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 11 10 10 9 7 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -60 -46 -38 -38 -54 -60 -90 -86 -70 -50 -18 -23 200 MB DIV 59 25 -2 9 31 -10 -1 -21 -4 -10 -4 3 -28 700-850 TADV 2 4 2 2 0 -3 0 0 0 -1 0 -11 -3 LAND (KM) 71 74 76 95 116 137 134 119 90 64 52 28 -14 LAT (DEG N) 32.0 32.2 32.3 32.3 32.2 32.1 32.0 31.9 31.9 32.0 32.2 32.3 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 80.0 79.6 79.3 79.0 78.7 78.5 78.7 79.2 79.8 80.1 80.0 80.3 80.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 3 2 0 1 3 2 1 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 21 19 17 17 19 22 22 24 21 21 19 8 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -4. -9. -13. -17. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 6. 8. 6. 1. -3. -8. -11. -13. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 32.0 80.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112016 JULIA 09/15/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.17 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.46 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.70 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.23 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.44 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 11.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 135.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 12.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.4% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112016 JULIA 09/15/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112016 JULIA 09/15/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 39 40 41 43 41 36 32 27 24 22 20 18HR AGO 35 34 37 38 39 41 39 34 30 25 22 20 18 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 35 33 28 24 19 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 28 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT