* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE AL122016 09/15/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 32 33 32 33 35 37 40 44 46 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 32 33 32 33 35 37 40 44 46 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 29 27 26 25 25 27 29 31 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 19 22 25 22 15 12 12 11 10 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 3 1 0 3 0 0 2 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 249 256 255 248 258 273 277 287 306 303 287 278 265 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 124 123 125 124 123 125 126 129 133 135 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 118 117 116 118 117 115 117 118 122 126 127 130 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 72 72 73 72 71 65 60 56 59 59 61 63 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 16 15 15 14 13 12 12 11 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 20 15 26 36 42 45 50 59 63 60 65 62 63 200 MB DIV 52 60 36 29 14 7 9 -12 0 2 1 30 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 7 5 0 1 -3 -2 -4 -3 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1047 1183 1320 1435 1550 1822 2053 2076 1934 1782 1611 1529 1510 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.6 17.4 17.1 17.4 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 26.9 28.2 29.5 30.6 31.7 34.3 36.5 38.4 40.2 42.2 44.4 46.4 48.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 11 11 10 9 9 10 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 11 6 4 6 12 17 12 15 25 25 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.5 26.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 TWELVE 09/15/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.30 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.54 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 122.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 TWELVE 09/15/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 32 32 33 32 33 35 37 40 44 46 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 30 31 30 31 33 35 38 42 44 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 28 27 28 30 32 35 39 41 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 21 20 21 23 25 28 32 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT