* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL112016 09/15/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 32 34 32 28 24 20 18 19 20 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 32 34 32 28 24 20 18 19 20 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 26 25 24 25 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 25 22 24 27 25 28 23 26 22 16 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -2 -1 -4 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -4 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 264 265 268 264 275 284 303 315 316 319 302 258 275 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 138 138 137 139 139 138 137 137 137 137 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 111 111 110 109 110 110 110 110 110 109 109 111 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 7 7 5 7 6 8 7 9 8 10 6 700-500 MB RH 54 53 55 56 52 53 51 53 51 51 52 45 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 11 10 10 9 7 5 4 2 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -50 -37 -39 -55 -41 -78 -85 -99 -62 -47 -13 -48 200 MB DIV 35 5 10 28 -6 -9 -7 -30 -10 -17 20 -8 -27 700-850 TADV 4 2 1 -1 0 -2 2 0 1 0 0 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 86 95 105 117 129 143 153 138 114 114 138 138 114 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 32.0 32.0 32.0 31.9 31.8 31.7 31.7 31.8 31.8 31.7 31.7 31.8 LONG(DEG W) 79.9 79.6 79.3 79.1 79.0 78.9 78.9 79.2 79.5 79.5 79.2 79.2 79.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 21 23 24 26 29 28 24 24 28 28 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 2. -3. -8. -12. -16. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -13. -16. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 2. -2. -6. -10. -12. -11. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.9 79.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112016 JULIA 09/15/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.16 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.86 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.68 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.47 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 44.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.55 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 138.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 12.9% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.7% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112016 JULIA 09/15/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112016 JULIA 09/15/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 32 34 32 28 24 20 18 19 20 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 31 33 31 27 23 19 17 18 19 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 29 27 23 19 15 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT