* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL112016 09/15/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 32 33 31 29 26 24 23 22 21 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 32 33 31 29 26 24 23 22 21 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 26 26 26 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 23 25 27 27 28 26 21 22 18 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -2 -4 -4 -1 -3 0 -3 -3 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 260 257 260 272 285 285 304 310 315 319 272 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 141 140 139 140 140 140 138 138 139 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 113 113 111 110 111 111 112 110 110 111 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 7 7 5 5 7 5 8 7 9 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 52 54 51 51 51 51 51 49 50 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 11 11 10 9 7 5 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -40 -34 -46 -49 -48 -78 -80 -81 -59 -30 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 3 13 -8 -9 -8 -23 -19 -13 -8 4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 -1 0 -4 -1 -1 0 0 0 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 148 163 180 183 187 180 189 177 157 157 168 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.7 31.7 31.8 31.8 31.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.8 78.5 78.2 78.1 78.1 78.2 78.2 78.4 78.6 78.6 78.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 27 31 31 32 31 33 30 26 26 28 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. -2. -7. -10. -14. -17. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.8 78.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112016 JULIA 09/15/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.13 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.30 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.77 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.49 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 47.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.53 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 156.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 9.8% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.5% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112016 JULIA 09/15/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112016 JULIA 09/15/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 31 32 33 31 29 26 24 23 22 21 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 31 32 30 28 25 23 22 21 20 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 28 26 24 21 19 18 17 16 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT