* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE AL122016 09/15/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 26 25 25 29 32 34 40 45 49 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 26 25 25 29 32 34 40 45 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 23 22 23 24 27 30 34 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 26 25 23 16 13 8 9 7 9 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 -1 0 1 -1 -3 -1 1 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 252 244 256 266 277 293 308 331 321 309 284 283 295 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 124 124 124 125 128 131 135 139 142 144 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 118 117 117 118 119 122 125 131 135 137 137 137 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 74 71 69 67 64 61 57 58 58 60 63 66 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 15 15 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 27 33 36 37 36 51 56 53 57 50 51 48 43 200 MB DIV 22 17 5 -15 -7 -1 1 -6 4 3 6 -8 13 700-850 TADV 9 9 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -4 -3 -1 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1348 1482 1615 1746 1878 2127 1930 1726 1526 1377 1283 1149 1013 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.0 17.7 17.4 16.9 16.5 16.4 16.6 16.9 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 29.8 31.0 32.3 33.5 34.8 37.6 40.0 42.4 44.9 47.5 50.1 52.4 54.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 3 2 4 4 17 14 20 22 22 49 46 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 21. 24. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.6 29.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 TWELVE 09/15/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.24 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.88 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.8 to -3.1 0.62 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.13 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.54 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 124.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 13.9% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 10.0% Logistic: 1.2% 6.1% 2.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 6.7% 4.1% 0.2% 0.0% 2.6% 3.7% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 TWELVE 09/15/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 26 25 25 29 32 34 40 45 49 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 26 25 25 29 32 34 40 45 49 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 24 23 23 27 30 32 38 43 47 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 18 18 22 25 27 33 38 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT