* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL112016 09/15/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 41 41 39 35 33 30 29 27 26 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 41 41 39 35 33 30 29 27 26 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 38 37 36 35 35 36 39 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 30 29 25 25 26 18 20 17 15 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -4 -2 1 -2 0 -1 -2 -4 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 262 274 278 273 291 306 322 326 307 245 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 140 140 140 140 142 142 141 139 138 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 112 112 112 112 112 113 113 113 111 110 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 7 6 8 8 9 8 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 52 51 50 49 49 51 51 53 56 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 10 9 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -39 -49 -49 -48 -70 -71 -91 -52 -33 6 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 8 -19 -14 12 -29 -17 -13 -18 13 14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -7 -3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 212 227 240 249 258 277 289 289 267 238 209 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.1 32.1 32.0 32.0 31.9 31.8 31.6 31.6 31.9 32.2 32.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.5 77.3 77.0 76.9 76.8 76.6 76.8 76.8 76.6 76.6 76.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 48 52 52 52 49 49 49 50 50 49 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 0. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 32.1 77.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112016 JULIA 09/15/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.05 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 49.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.32 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.32 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.83 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.45 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 27.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.73 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 172.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.77 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 12.3% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.5% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112016 JULIA 09/15/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112016 JULIA 09/15/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 40 41 41 39 35 33 30 29 27 26 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 38 38 36 32 30 27 26 24 23 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 33 31 27 25 22 21 19 18 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 26 24 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT