* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE AL122016 09/15/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 26 25 27 31 33 37 41 46 50 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 26 25 27 31 33 37 41 46 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 25 23 23 24 26 28 31 35 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 26 24 21 18 13 10 7 7 6 6 8 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 0 2 3 1 -2 0 0 5 2 1 5 SHEAR DIR 249 261 269 273 281 295 299 297 296 293 288 303 292 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.6 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 124 124 124 126 130 132 137 140 143 144 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 118 117 117 119 121 125 127 133 136 138 137 140 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 71 69 66 63 62 60 56 59 54 58 59 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 15 15 14 13 13 11 11 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 37 36 37 35 37 65 59 66 60 57 55 58 56 200 MB DIV 25 7 -14 -6 25 4 -6 -9 19 -12 25 11 11 700-850 TADV 10 2 1 1 1 0 0 -1 -4 0 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1454 1593 1731 1860 1990 2045 1826 1622 1436 1327 1240 1067 943 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.9 18.0 17.9 17.8 17.6 17.2 16.8 16.4 16.5 17.1 17.4 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 30.8 32.1 33.4 34.6 35.9 38.6 41.3 43.8 46.3 48.8 51.5 53.8 55.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 12 13 12 12 13 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 4 4 10 19 12 33 21 29 47 51 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. 1. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.7 30.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 TWELVE 09/15/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.25 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.56 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.59 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.15 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.54 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 135.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 11.9% 8.1% 6.5% 0.0% 6.9% 10.1% Logistic: 0.8% 4.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 5.5% 3.2% 2.3% 0.0% 2.4% 4.2% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 TWELVE 09/15/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 26 25 27 31 33 37 41 46 50 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 26 25 27 31 33 37 41 46 50 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 24 23 25 29 31 35 39 44 48 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 18 20 24 26 30 34 39 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT