* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL112016 09/16/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 40 40 39 38 35 33 33 32 31 30 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 40 40 39 38 35 33 33 32 31 30 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 37 37 36 36 35 36 37 40 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 28 25 20 25 22 20 18 12 11 22 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -4 2 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 266 277 274 278 306 320 334 324 270 236 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 144 144 146 145 145 144 142 141 139 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 116 115 116 117 117 117 116 114 113 111 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 7 7 6 8 7 9 8 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 51 49 48 47 49 48 49 52 53 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 10 9 8 6 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -46 -50 -46 -44 -68 -71 -81 -46 -8 -1 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 -9 -14 18 -5 -21 -22 -15 -2 19 -9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 -5 -4 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 265 287 309 319 330 338 295 273 258 261 238 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.5 31.4 31.3 31.1 30.9 31.1 31.3 31.6 31.8 32.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.3 77.0 76.8 76.8 76.8 76.9 77.3 77.4 77.3 77.0 76.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 49 49 46 44 43 44 47 47 50 51 52 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.5 77.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112016 JULIA 09/16/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.14 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 46.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.54 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.72 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.48 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 17.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.82 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 197.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 13.9% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.1% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112016 JULIA 09/16/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112016 JULIA 09/16/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 38 40 40 39 38 35 33 33 32 31 30 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 37 36 35 32 30 30 29 28 27 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 33 32 31 28 26 26 25 24 23 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 24 23 20 18 18 17 16 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT