* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/16/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 39 39 41 44 47 51 53 57 59 62 V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 39 39 41 44 47 51 53 57 59 62 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 40 39 38 37 38 41 45 51 57 63 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 25 21 18 14 11 8 6 4 5 5 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 5 3 0 -3 -1 0 6 3 2 4 -2 SHEAR DIR 269 273 282 288 301 288 285 320 348 317 303 285 275 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.5 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 124 124 126 128 131 136 139 142 144 146 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 118 117 118 120 122 127 131 133 135 137 137 137 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 66 62 60 59 58 55 56 53 56 57 60 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 15 14 14 13 12 12 10 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 33 33 34 48 53 59 57 50 51 43 42 44 50 200 MB DIV -17 -13 21 19 0 -15 0 21 -7 21 -4 12 10 700-850 TADV 3 8 8 3 0 -2 -3 -4 -1 -2 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1673 1810 1946 2081 2138 1942 1719 1544 1432 1319 1175 1066 873 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.3 18.2 18.0 17.6 17.4 17.5 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 32.8 34.1 35.4 36.7 38.0 40.6 43.4 46.1 48.7 51.1 53.4 55.6 57.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 2 4 6 15 18 12 26 28 30 46 54 34 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -12. -13. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.2 32.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/16/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.31 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.33 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.92 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.45 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 13.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 211.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 14.3% 9.6% 7.9% 5.5% 8.1% 15.9% Logistic: 0.8% 5.7% 2.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.8% 6.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 2.2% 7.1% 4.2% 2.8% 1.8% 3.0% 7.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/16/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 39 39 39 41 44 47 51 53 57 59 62 18HR AGO 40 39 38 38 38 40 43 46 50 52 56 58 61 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 36 38 41 44 48 50 54 56 59 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 32 35 38 42 44 48 50 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT